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Prediction for CME (2026-03-17T05:08:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-03-17T05:08Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45121/-1
CME Note: CME faintly seen to the SE in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2. The CME is not clearly visible in GOES CCOR-1 and is obscured by the pylon in SOHO LASCO C3. The potential source is a filament eruption with brightening starting at 2026-03-17T02:41Z from AR 14392 (approximately S15E10). The eruption is also visible near the SE limb from the point of view of STEREO A EUV 304 starting at 2026-03-17T03:45Z. | Arrival information: Arrival signature primarily characterized by a series of sharp jumps in B_total with the first beginning at 2026-03-20T01:31Z and by an associated increase in solar wind speed. The first jump in B_total is from ~5 nT to ~8 nT with B_total subsequently reaching ~18.5 nT by 2026-03-20T10:09Z. Solar wind speed increases from ~330 km/s to ~450 km/s. The shock signature is also accompanied by an increase in temperature and an increase in density. There is a likely flux rope signature seen starting ~2026-03-20T13:22Z, with smooth rotation of magnetic field components. That flux rope signature is interrupted by a sudden B_total jump indicating the start of the next, separate Interplanetary Shock at 2026-03-20T20:17Z. This arrival signature is likely the combined arrival of four CMEs simulated together expected to give Missions Near Earth a glancing blow at 2026-03-20T06:00Z (+- 7 hours), including CME 2026-03-17T05:08Z, CME 2026-03-17T06:38Z, CME 2026-03-17T08:23Z, and CME 2026-03-17T10:53Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-03-20T01:31Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-20T12:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2026-03-17 03:04
Radial velocity (km/s): 608
Longitude (deg): 7 W
Latitude (deg): 8 S
Half-angular width (deg): 10

Notes: 
Faint CME associated with filament eruption from south centre disc at 17/0304 UTC. Cant see on LASCO so fit primarily from STEREO. 
Space weather advisor: Stuart Webster

Lead Time: 36.18 hour(s)
Difference: -10.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-03-18T13:20Z

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